Week 2: Panic or Patience in the War of Fantasy
The year: Two-Thousand and Twenty-Four Anno Domini. A fortnight into the 14th Fantasy War of Men. Four Spartan soldiers sit at 2-0 on the battlefield. Another four Trojans lie at 1-1. And four Athenians lay to waste at 0-2.
In the great expanse of the fantasy realm, where mortal men contend for the favor of the gods, the Spartans stood mighty and unyielding, having triumphed in two battles. Ser Will the Merciless of Brick Village; Lord Davidson the Decorated, from the Field of Plains; Prince Mel the Sorcerer of House Clairmont; and His Grace, Ser Dre the Dreadful of Lindenwalde Castle, and bearer of the crown in the 13th Fantasy War of Men. These four men - their shields gleamed in the sunlight, their spears sharp and steady. The omens were clear—victory had smiled upon them twice in battle. And they felt the favor of the gods whispering in the wind to their backs. These four Spartans strode boldly across the battlefield. Their hearts swelling with pride, each one proclaimed, "The path to glory is ours! No man can stand in our way!"
Yet, in the distance, the Trojans lingered, neither defeated nor triumphant, but caught between victory and doubt. These four Trojans: Lord Commander Sherva the Brute, from the Gardens of Queens; Ser Stephen, Barterer of Trades, of House Abington; Lord Jenkins the Humble, Warden of the Western Fields of Oranges; and Ser Kenneth, Seeker of Glory, also of House Clairmont and betrayed brother of Prince Mel the Sorcerer. One victory had been theirs, a moment of shining glory that echoed through the hills. But their second clash? It had brought them no laurels, only the sting of uncertainty. These four Trojans, under the shadow of doubt, turned their gaze to the heavens and questioned the will of the gods. Were they chosen to rise to greatness, or to falter in the war to come? Their leaders spoke with caution: "We are not lost, but neither are we found. The fates have yet to decree our place in the annals of this war."
And then there were the Athenians - Ser Lance the Barren, of the Southern Fields of Oranges; King Claude the Wanderer of House Prescott; the lowly Lord Robert Anthony, Lord of Yesteryear and times past, reigning over Summit’s Peak, an ominous land where his famed knight, Odellius Beckham has been laid to rest; and lastly, Ser Duncan the Delirious, of the desolate Land of Owen, and squire to His Grace, Ser Dre the Dreadful. These four Athenians, who, after two great struggles, found themselves defeated, their banners torn and their soldiers weary. Twice they had marched into battle, and twice they had been cast down by the cruel hand of fate. Their hearts, heavy with despair, sought meaning in their trials. Had they angered the gods? Was there a curse upon them that no offering could lift? "Surely," cried the Athenian soldiers, "the gods have forsaken us! We stand on the brink of ruin, and the sands of time slip through our fingers! Shall we perish without a single triumph?"
Yet, before any man might lay claim to his future, the wise among them turned their gaze back to the Wars of Old, to the battles fought in the Era of Golden Offerings – the fabled last ten years of the Auction Draft Era, where each warrior offered treasure and sacrifice to the gods in exchange battle-tested soldiers. It is in these ancient annals, inscribed by the hands of the scribes, that we shall search for answers. How fared the Spartans who had conquered early? Did the Trojans rise from the middle of the pack, or fall into obscurity? And what of the Athenians—those who, like fallen heroes, began their journey in ruin? Did any return from the underworld of 0-2 to claim victory?
Let us now look back upon these past ten seasons of war, where fortunes were won and lost, and the whims of the gods determined the fates of all who dared enter the battlefield.
That was fun. And while it took me about an hour just to write that, I needed the mental exercise. But here we are, two weeks into the season, and I wanted to take a look back on how these three records (2-0, 1-1, and 0-2) fared in seasons past. So I went back to 2014, when we first implemented the auction draft and took a deep dive into the numbers. So let’s review together:
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Two (2) 2-0 teams: 1 made the playoffs; 1 silver medal
Eight (8) 1-1 teams; 3 made the playoffs; 1 bronze medal
Two (2) 0-2 teams; 2 made the playoffs; 1 gold medal
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Two (2) 2-0 teams; 2 made the playoffs; 1 gold medal; 1 bronze medal
Eight (8) 1-1 teams; 4 made the playoffs; 1 silver medal
Two (2) 0-2 teams; 0 made the playoffs
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Two (2) 2-0 teams; 1 made the playoffs
Eight (8) 1-1 teams; 4 made the playoffs; 1 gold medal; 1 silver medal
Two (2) 0-2 teams; 1 made the playoffs; 1 bronze medal
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Two (2) 2-0 teams; 1 made the playoffs
Eight (8) 1-1 teams; 4 made the playoffs; 1 gold medal; 1 silver medal
Two (2) 0-2 teams; 1 made the playoffs; 1 bronze medal
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Three (3) 2-0 teams; 2 made the playoffs; 1 gold medal; 1 silver medal
Six (6) 1-1 teams; 4 made the playoffs; 1 bronze medal
Three (3) 0-2 teams; 0 made the playoffs
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Four (4) 2-0 teams; 3 made the playoffs; 1 gold medal; 1 silver medal; 1 bronze medal
Four (4) 1-1 teams; 3 made the playoffs
Four (4) 0-2 teams; 0 made the playoffs
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Three (3) 2-0 teams: 1 made the playoffs
Six (6) 1-1 teams: 5 made the playoffs; 1 gold medal; 1 silver medal; 1 bronze medal
Three (3) 0-2 teams: 0 made the playoffs
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Three (3) 2-0 teams: 3 made the playoffs; 1 gold medal
Six (6) 1-1 teams: 2 made the playoffs; 1 silver medal; 1 bronze medal
Three (3) 0-2 teams: 1 made the playoffs
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Four (4) 2-0 teams: 3 made the playoffs; 1 bronze medal
Four (4) 1-1 teams: 3 made the playoffs; 1 gold medal; 1 silver medal
Four (4) 0-2 teams: 0 made the playoffs
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Three (3) 2-0 teams: 1 made the playoffs; 1 silver medal
Six (6) 1-1 teams: 4 made the playoffs; 1 gold medal; 1 bronze medal
Three (3) 0-2 teams: 1 made the playoffs
Some of you read through each one of those stats (Steve, CJ, Dre to name a few). Others skipped down after reading one or two (Tone, Dunc are my guesses). Either way, let’s synthesize this data:
In the last 10 years of the Auction Draft Era, twenty-eight (28) teams started off 2-0. Of those 28 teams, 18 made the playoffs. Furthernore, of those 18 teams, 11 went on to earn a Top-3 medal; 4 of those being the championship gold medal. Overall, the data suggests that the owners who have started 2-0 have a 64% chance of making the playoffs. There’s also an 39% chance that one of the top-3 medalists will come from a crop of the 2-0 owners and a 40% chance that the championship will be crowned to one of these four 2-0 owners. And for Will, Mel, Dre, and myself - while there’s a 40% chance that the champion will come from a 2-0 team, there’s a 14.29% chance that you specifically (or me) will be the champion, based on the historical data.
In the last 10 years of the Auction Draft Era, sixty-four (64) teams have started off 1-1. Of those 64 teams, 36 made the playoffs. Furthermore, of those 36 teams, 16 went on to earn a Top-3 medal; 5 of those being the championship gold medal. Overall, the data suggests that the owners who have started 1-1 have a 50% chance of making the playoffs. There’s also a 25% chance that one of the top-3 medalists will come from a crop of the 1-1 owners and a 50% chance that the championship will be crowned to one of the four 1-1 owners. And for Sherv, Steve, Zayn and Kenny - while there’s a 50% chance the the championship will come from a 1-1 team, there’s an 8% chance that you specifically will be the champion, based on historical data.
In the last 10 years of the Auction Draft Era, twenty-eight (28) teams started off 0-2. Of those 28 teams, 6 made the playoffs. Furthermore, of those 6 teams, 3 went on to earn a Top-3 medal; 1 of those being the championship gold medal. Overall, the data suggests that the owners who have started 0-2 have a 21% chance of making the playoffs. There’s also an 11% chance that one of the top-3 medalists will come from a crop of the 0-2 owners and a 10% chance that the championship will be crowned to one of the 0-2 owners. For Lance, CJ, Tone, and Dunc - while there’s a 10% chance that the championship will come from an 0-2 team, there’s a 3.5% chance that you specifically will be the champion, based on historical data.
So what does this all mean? Well, in essence: we ALL still have a punter’s chance at winning this thing.The numbers are the numbers, but they don’t dictate your fate. Whether you’re basking in the glow of a 2-0 start or grappling with the struggles of an 0-2 beginning, there’s a long season ahead full of opportunities. Keep making trades, scouring the waiver wire, and staying engaged. This is fantasy football, and it's the "Any Given Sunday" mentality that drives the game. It’s not over until the final whistle blows. It was just last year when Dre defied the odds by becoming the only owner in JNIC FFL history to come back from an 0-2 start and fight on to win the championship. So, no matter where you stand right now, keep up the fight. The season is far from over, and you never know what twists and turns lie ahead. Stay relentless, stay hopeful, and let’s see how the rest of the season unfolds.
Oh … and how about that Marvin Harrison, huh! :-)
